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Doughnut Cities

There is no place in the world where all residents share the same level of prosperity, or where this prosperity has been achieved in a sustainable or just manner. Therefore, the question is what kind of prosperity is achievable for citizens around the world without destroying the environment and harming the prospects for a decent life of fellow men and future generations?

In this essay I will look for an answer. The doughnut principle proposed by Kate Raworth (on the photo above) is a promising starting-point, hence the title chosen. I will try to avoid the hypocrisy of a well-fed Western man who advocates a reduction in consumption for sustainability, because billions of people are hungry or poor and dream of some wealth. Moreover, they are not the main polluters.

The social origin of greenhouse gasses

The recent Oxfam report Extreme carbon inequality shows that the poorest half of the world population – around 3.5 billion people – is responsible for only 10% of total global emissions from individual consumption. About 50% of the emissions come from the richest 10% of people around the world. They have an average carbon footprint that is 11 times as high as that of the poorest half, and 60 times as high as that the poorest 10%. Even a 50% reduction in consumption by the top 10% and a doubling of consumption by the lower 50% would result in a worldwide decrease of consumption of about 15%.

Doughnut cities is the seventh edition in a series of essays on how cities can become more humane. That means finding a balance between sustainability, social justice and quality of life. This requires far-reaching choices. Once these choices have been made, it goes without saying that we use smart technologies to realize them.

The essays that have already been published can be found here.

Also, within all countries, the production of greenhouse gasses varies with income. The graph shows that the concept of rich countries is misleading. A small part of the population of most countries has affluent and still-growing opportunity to consume and to contribute to the production of greenhouse gasses; the majority of the population stays far behind.

Per capita consumption-related emissions in G20 countries

Economic growth remains a political and economic priority in almost all countries. Growth that is measured easily by adding up the total amount of financial resources that is spent from year to year. Mainstream economic thinking assumes that demand will always grow and that, in an effort to meet this demand, firms will deliver an increasing amount of goods and services, resulting in never-ending economic growth. In this vision, growth is the main goals of a successful economy and the measure of success.

As early as 1968, Robert Kennedy stated in a speech at Kansas University: Gross National Product counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them. It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder to sprawl. Fifty years later, the ecological and social effects of the dominant economic model are more visible than ever.

Wellbeing Economy Alliance

In 2017, the governments of Scotland, Costa Rica, Slovenia and New Zealand signed a new alliance, the Wellbeing Economy Alliance. Costa Rica is among the top three countries in the world for the well-being and happiness of their people. The government of New Zealand does no longer accept GNP as the supreme measure of progress: We need to make sure we are looking at people’s ability to actually have a meaningful life, an enjoyable life, where their work is enough to survive and support their families, the prime-minister said.

A growing group of people is realizing that the world needs a kind of prosperity that satisfies the needs of the entire world population – now and in the future – and comes about in a socially and environmentally sustainable way.

The big question is what responsible prosperity and a society that is able to foster it look like. But first, we have to understand why this kind of society has never come closer.

The cursed trinity of economic growth, inequality and environmental decay

To start with the latter question, economic growth, the profit of companies and the value for shareholders, not to mention the annual increase in compensation of top managers, are exactly the circumstances that underlie most environmental and social problems in our world.

Wealth on one hand and poverty and environmental decay on the other are strongly connected. This view has been proclaimed by Marxists for years but new – less ideologically inspired – research using census data from 1980 to 2013 provides evidence that economic inequality and regional differences are intertwined. A study by Harvard alumnus Robert Manduca, The Contribution of National Income Inequality to Regional Economic Divergence shows that the growing regional differences within the US are largely a product of national economic inequality, in particular the outsized economic gains that have been captured by the 1% wealthiest people. This elite with its numerous connections with international business and politics is also the main ideological source behind the doctrine of endless growth. Its power has prevented adequate social and environmental policies for more than half a century, including the only measures that could have prevented global warming, namely the internalization of external costs and in particular carbon tax.

Policy for responsible growth

Below, I summarize a number of insights regarding the conditions of responsible prosperity. Together, these insights enable the formulation of policy guidelines for countries, regions or towns.

In the first place, I mention the Sustainable Development Goals, a rather comprehensive list of targets, followed by the concept of a doughnut economy proposed by UK economic scientist Kate Raworth, to end with the Green New Deal in the US.

I could have included the principles of inclusive growth formulated by the World Economic Forum, the UN Millennial goals, the impressive film Inconvenient Truth by Al Gore, and I could have gone back to the Report of the Club of Rome or Rachel Carson’s seminal book Silent Spring.

All of these approaches have in common that mastering environmental problems involves redistributing and redefining of the essence of prosperity.

The Sustainable Development Goals

In 2015, all 193 members of the United Nations supported the 17 ambitious Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Each of these goals has been specified in indicators. The number of these indicators has grown to 232 since 2015.

At the same time, the Netherlands has started its own approach, based on the concept of brede welvaart, (broad prosperity), another alternative for gross national product. It has been decided to integrate the policy themes with respect to broad prosperity and the SDGs, which has resulted in a slight adaption of their number and formulation. Just like the SDGs, broad prosperity has many indicators, to do justice to the diversity of its facets.

A unique aspect of measuring broad prosperity – in comparison with the SDGs – is the distinction between prosperity “here and now”, the pressure that the current level of prosperity puts on future generations (“later”) or on other countries (“elsewhere”). A further distinction is made between absolute size, growth or decline in recent years and the position of the Netherlands in comparison with the EU28-countries.

Prosperity here and now

Regarding the “here and now” indicators, the Netherlands is at the forefront of five development goals: ‘No poverty’ (SDG 1); ‘industry, innovation and infrastructure: knowledge and innovation’ (SDG 9); ‘reducing inequality: social cohesion and inequality’ (SDG 10): ‘peace, justice and strong public services: institutions’ (SDG 16) and ‘partnership to achieve objectives’ (SDG 17). In contrast, on four other SDGs, the Netherlands is in the lower regions of the European ranking: ‘Affordable and sustainable energy’ (SDG 7); ‘climate action’ (SDG 13); ‘life below water’ (SDG 14) and ‘life on land’ (SDG 15).

The trend in the development of broad prosperity “here and now” is positive rather than negative. A positive trend dominates at ‘the end of hunger’ (SDG 2); ‘gender equality’ (SDG 5); ‘clean water and sanitary’ (SDG 6); ‘fair work and economic growth: economy and production factors’ (SDG 8) and ‘industry, innovation and sustainable infrastructure: knowledge and innovation’ (SDG 9). A falling trend occurs in ‘good health and well-being’ (SDG3); ‘industry, innovation and infrastructure: mobility’ (SDG9); ‘reduction of inequality’ (SDG 10); ‘sustainable cities and communities: living’ (SDG 11); and ‘life on land’ and ‘life below water’ (SDGs 14 and 15).

Prosperity elsewhere

With regard to the broad prosperity “elsewhere”; there are more negative than positive positions and trends. The total import of fossil energy and biomass in the Netherlands is steadily increasing and the import of metals and minerals has recently increased, with the exception of imports from the poorest countries. This trend is considered negative because of the reduction of the stocks elsewhere in the world.

The Netherlands is at the top when it comes to foreign aid, but in this respect, there is also a downward trend.

The trend in the development of broad prosperity “later” is predominantly positive, except in the area of ​​natural capital (negative) and human capital (neutral). This falling trend with regard to natural capital reflects the low percentage of renewable energy and a relatively high CO2 emission.

Distribution of broad prosperity

Also interesting is the analysis of the distribution of broad prosperity. The degree of broad prosperity mainly comes with the level of education, not with wealth.

The aforementioned analysis by the Dutch Statistical Office provides a wealth of data concerning the hundreds of indicators. However, many indicators have different interpretations. For example, indicators such as the growth of expenses in health care and the number of hours worked in education do not directly indicate growing prosperity. This depends on whether the increased use of resources is actually bearing fruit. Consequently, the policy relevance of some SDG’s is not immediately clear and leaves many political choices open. That is why we are diligently looking for standards with unambiguous implications for sustainable and social action.

The doughnut economy

The model for a doughnut economy has been developed by the British economist Kate Raworth in a report for Oxfam entitled A Safe and Just Space for Humanity. The idea quickly spread throughout the world. The essence is that social and environmental sustainability must be guiding principles for economic policy in the 21th century and together direct economic behavior. There is no triple bottom-line: social and environmental sustainability are in the lead, economy follows.

The idea behind ​​the doughnut model is simple. if you only look at the shape of a doughnut, you see two circles. A small circle in the middle and a large circle on the outside. The smallest circle represents the minimal social objectives (basic-needs) that apply to each country. The large circle represents the self-sustaining capacity of the planet. All societies must develop policies that stay between the two lines. Where economic behavior nowadays has far-reaching consequences that go beyond both lines, future economic policy must aim to make societies thrive between the lines.

Unlike the SDGs, the model is based on the coherence between economic policy, environmental and social issues. It assumes that our actions are interconnected. In many developed countries, positive outcomes with regards to the social basement are the direct results of the same economic growth that is responsible for overshooting the environmental ceiling. The main objective for each country is to achieve better living conditions between the social basement and the environmental ceiling, without assuming beforehand that economic growth is a necessary condition for this. The tables below show data about the current state regarding the social basement and the ecological ceiling. All targets mentioned have to be reached as quickly as possible. Due to significant differences between countries, in the extent to which each of these goals are achieved, policies can vary by country, region or city.

In spite of superficial correspondence between the SDG’s and the doughnut model, there are differences. The SDG’s can be compared with a dashboard with as many red and green lights as there are indicators. It is assumed that each light can separately be influenced by a slide switch. However, the color of the control lights is conditioned by interconnected (economic) processes: For instance, the green color of most social indicators in rich EU28 countries is a direct consequence of their powerful economies, that at the same time result in a dark-red color of environment-related indicators. The main added-value of the doughnut model is enabling a critical evaluation of any city’s or country’s policy to realize just sustainable prosperity.

What operating between the basement and the ceiling of the doughnut means for inhabitants of different types of countries, is the main topic for the next section. Before, I will introduce the most robust – albeit pragmatic – model, the Green New Deal, that does not need complicated calculations and is therefore easy to understand and ready for implementation.

The Green New Deal

It is already ten years ago, that the United nations called for a ‘Global Green New Deal’ in which developed countries would invest at least 1% of GDP on reducing carbon dependency, while developing economies should spend 1% of GDP on improving access to clean water and sanitation for the poor as well as strengthening social safety nets. in 2012 and 2016 Green Party candidate Jill Stein ran – in vain – for presidency of the US on a “Green New Deal”. In 2018, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, supported by senator Ed Markey, adopted the term during her successful campaign for the House of Representatives.

In recent days, US lawmakers including Senators Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, and Kirsten Gillibrand have voiced support for some form of Green New Deal, and New York’s governor, Andrew Cuomo, has sketched out a Green New Deal for his state as part of his budget proposal.

Many candidates for the presidential elections in the US come with plans of their own, voters’ support is unexpecting high (see graph) and in several states in the US, for instance New York, California and Minnesota bills are passing that mirror the Green New Deal’s principles.

Support for the Green New Deal among registered voters

The Green New Deal’s goal is achieving net-zero carbon emissions in the next decade and creating millions of high-paying jobs in order to develop the necessary infrastructure and to reduce the number of poor, work- or homeless people correspondingly. In addition, the Green New Deal includes protection against monopolies, investments in public transport, access to affordable housing and healthy food, and justice for the historically marginalized people in the transition to a new economy.

The Green New Deal pretends to address four systemic national crises: skyrocketing inequality, deepening structural racism, catastrophic climate change, and the takeover of American democracy by the ultra-rich and corporations.

Towards a Global Green New Deal

For more than ten years, C40 has been promoting climate action in more than 65 cities. Recently, this alliance of big cities went one step further – initiated by Anne Hidalgo (mayor of Paris) and Eric Garcetty (mayor of Los Angeles) – and started the Global New Green Deal to connect ecological and social action, where national governments stay behind. It is founded on four principles:

Recognition of the global climate change emergency

Commitment to keep global heating below the 1.5°C target by reducing emissions in the sectors that make the largest contribution: transportation, industry, buildings, and waste.
Commitment to a fundamental, and irreversible transfer of global resources away from fossil fuels. 4. Intention to cooperate with those who will drive change and whose lives are affected by climate-change, including companies, governments, investors, employees, civil society, citizens, youth, and communities disproportionately impacted by climate change and poverty.
The Green New Deal proposals lacks the theoretical foundation of the donut principle, but both work in the same direction. The New Green Deal could get a boost in the upcoming presidential elections in the US. In the longer term, a more detailed model is needed and the donut principle is better suited for this.

Prosperity within limits

Cities bear a great deal of responsibility as they are focal points of economic activity, provide jobs and produce most that is needed for a decent life of citizens. In their territory most investments will take place that are needed to become socially and environmentally sustainable.

Taking the doughnut principle as a point of depart, economic activities that overshoot the ecological ceiling or do not comply with the social basement need to be redesigned, or new sustainable and just activities have to be developed.

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